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Originally Posted by shellymdnv That is not what I am talking about. When you look at what the final polling average for each state, did the pollsters get it write or wrong. In that case yes, all four predicted Biden would win PA . PA Final 1.2 New York Times/Siena College Biden by 6 Ipsos Biden by 6 Emerson Biden by 5 Marist Biden by 4 What' I"m saying... NATE SILVER: If you had the election tomorrow, which would be a strange thing to do, by the way, I think Harris would be a slight favorite. She's been ahead in most recent polling in the blue wall states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, all polling in the margin of error range. BAIER: Yeah, and what about that, the underestimating of Trump? Is it two points? Is it three points? Is it people going into the polling booth saying to their friends they haven't voted for Trump, but they really do? SILVER: You know, polling is difficult. The conceit is that you randomly dial people, but we don't really have landlines anymore very much. People don't answer calls from strangers very much. So there's a lot of modeling, and sometimes models go wrong. In other words, if Trump is within 2-3 of Harris in each of the swing states he very well might win. Why? It's within a margin of error. It's 50-50. Yes, but if the "hidden Trump vote" is in play again this could make the difference in WI, GA, PA and AZ. Or as RCP suggests, "The hidden Trump vote" is the unknown we won't know until Nov. (责任编辑：) |